Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.139466 2.565981 3.044701 3.620221 4.291646 5.048451 5.964275
2025-12-14 1.502520 2.033893 2.695440 3.573046 4.699313 6.088018 7.920700
2025-12-21 1.130221 1.693368 2.457305 3.555071 5.074903 7.084900 9.920019
2025-12-28 0.950251 1.550249 2.424247 3.764847 5.737477 8.495020 12.592010
2026-01-04 0.793417 1.398352 2.337765 3.864488 6.233897 9.708510 15.105195
2026-01-11 0.688060 1.299938 2.305911 4.026224 6.822744 11.096228 17.989844
2026-01-18 0.577241 1.166881 2.191150 4.029968 7.152813 12.112398 20.398636
2026-01-25 0.467901 1.012019 2.010212 3.889665 7.219940 12.708528 22.190954
2026-02-01 0.380510 0.879060 1.843176 3.743073 7.247619 13.227692 23.886695
2026-02-08 0.325915 0.799764 1.761057 3.734612 7.507745 14.146998 26.309668
2026-02-15 0.282271 0.734118 1.693705 3.741708 7.791097 15.123511 28.901505
2026-02-22 0.241229 0.665125 1.607409 3.697145 7.967614 15.919134 31.232516
2026-03-01 0.194891 0.573782 1.459935 3.510144 7.853733 16.190177 32.676885
2026-03-08 0.166925 0.521719 1.390519 3.478220 8.045233 17.047824 35.271386
2026-03-15 0.144411 0.478467 1.333688 3.464905 8.271594 17.989317 38.096602
2026-03-22 0.136587 0.474476 1.371054 3.671264 8.986343 19.948594 43.025324
2026-03-29 0.124137 0.453858 1.363057 3.769101 9.473318 21.488432 47.243461
2026-04-05 0.115637 0.443285 1.379284 3.927387 10.110845 23.385431 52.307338
2026-04-12 0.101995 0.412610 1.336069 3.931089 10.394034 24.564132 55.997198
2026-04-19 0.085440 0.367278 1.243447 3.793899 10.330389 24.996961 58.176618
2026-04-26 0.071284 0.325919 1.153931 3.650563 10.233479 25.344909 60.196558
2026-05-03 0.062845 0.303255 1.116081 3.642291 10.466900 26.439864 63.884973
2026-05-10 0.055837 0.284022 1.085261 3.649230 10.738876 27.641841 67.886784